Using Statistics
HBR has a nice little piece on using statitics that is very applicable to anyone undertaking measurement for communications or marketing. The central tenents are:
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Know what you know-and what you’re only asserting
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Be clear about what you want to discover
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Don’t take causality for granted
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With statistics, you can’t prove things with 100 percent certainty
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With statistics, you can’t prove things with 100 percent certainty
The last one is important in communicating upwards to management. Does anyone care you increased coverage 3.2%? Probably not.
Updated: Edelman In Deal with Technorati
Steve has provided answers to my questions in the comments section – so here goes a quick update:
Rubel reports that Edelman has a deal to "fast-track the development of localized versions of their offering in German, Korean, Italian, French and Chinese." I’m not sure what this means so a couple of questions for Steve & Co.:
- Is Edelman paying or funding software development at Technorati? What specifically does fast-track mean? Or to use Peter’s words "support"? Is this a case of simply paying to lock-up Technorati for a period of time? Or as Stowe alludes to, is this about getting Technorati some needed cash for global expansion? Edelman is paying to accelerate Technorati’s deployment in Europe – as such the probably deserve the short exclusive they are getting.
- What does "exclusive" mean? Does this mean the only way to get access to pre-beta Technorati in those countries is via Edelman? The success of so many Web2.0 properties – Technorati included – has been predicated on getting not particularly robust products into the market allowing people to participate. Isn’t this going to turn a public tool into a proprietary one for a period of time – is it about, at least initially, supporting the growth of the blogosphere for Edelman clients? Why not open it to everyone? Reading between the lines of Steve’s remarks it seems unlikely that Technorati could have done this as quick without Edelman’s support – so, fair game on the exclusive. Ultimately we benefit from a faster time to market on Technorati services.
- Doesn’t this call into question Technorati’s independence and neutrality. I’m sure its just a coincidence but Steve’s favorite blogs are featured on Technorati’s home page this morning. In fairness to Steve, this is a rolling banner. Fair response from Steve. This will be an issue for Technorati going forward.
It is great that Edelman is lending its weight to such an important initiative. I’m a big fan of Richard and Steve. But fortunately they aren’t the only ones so this does seem to run counter to the notion of "participatory" and open.
While a propriety lock-in to Technorati’s international versions is a terrific coup for Edelman – and I am sure is a very profitable commercial relationship for Technorati – doesn’t it leave bloggers and other companies as deeply engaged in the blogosphere out in the cold? Steve’s comments point to this accelerating the availability of services – Edelman’s price is cold cash. Our price is that they get a bit of an exclusive for something we have to wait less for. Seems fair in the context of the commercial realities of the blogosphere.
More reading at PR Squared.
Blog-Based Analysts Shake Up IT Research
According to InformationWeek. They’re right! We not only get huge value from the likes of James Governor – but we also benefit from the conversation they ignite in the market. On any given day they can account for around 5% of our web traffic. We’re no Sun or IBM, but that’s a ton of clicks.
A new breed of IT analysts is sharing insights over the Internet, leaving traditional research firms trying to catch up using the same methods….
…E-pundits such as Vinnie Mirchandani, Dennis Howlett, James Governor, and Stephen O’Grady use the Web to promote their perspectives on topics that suit their different areas of expertise. Through blogs, they open up dialogues in which ideas are exchanged with IT pros, bloggers, and fellow analysts. And they rely on their years of experience to give them credibility and win client contracts that fund their online efforts: Mirchandani was with Gartner, Howlett spent 30 years in finance and accounting, and Governor and O’Grady were analysts at Illuminata.
…”Analysis isn’t and shouldn’t be a one-way conversation,” McGovern says. “Blogging allows meaningful dialogue to emerge and allows others to gain additional insights in a highly transparent way. I don’t get the opportunity to read blogs while at work, but at home, I passionately follow James Governor of RedMonk (MonkChips), Brenda Michelson of Seybold (Elemental Links), and Dan Blum of the Burton Group (Identerati) as they are highly relevant to not only work but personal interests.”
One thing they don’t touch on is the ability of these firms to touch the long tail of tech. By this I mean start-ups. This is a woefully under served segment of the tech market – by media and analysts. These analysts aren’t tied to focusing on the basis of extremely large paying customers. In addition, they aren’t tied by conventional products – as a start-up I can only afford one set of written insight and certainly can’t afford to pay per inquiry or briefing. With these new generation analysts the value comes from the conversation and forward looking insight. They aren’t as much rear window facing (basing comment on client insight) they are aggregating conversations from across the “network” to form opinions and views.
Now that is worth paying for.
Six Degrees Of Reputation
Great review on the use and abuse of online review and recommendation systems.
This paper reports initial findings from a study that used quantitative and qualitative research methods and custom–built software to investigate online economies of reputation and user practices in online product reviews at several leading e–commerce sites (primarily Amazon.com). We explore several cases in which book and CD reviews were copied whole or in part from one item to another and show that hundreds of product reviews on Amazon.com might be copies of one another. We further explain the strategies involved in these suspect product reviews, and the ways in which the collapse of the barriers between authors and readers affect the ways in which these information goods are being produced and exchanged. We report on techniques that are employed by authors, artists, editors, and readers to ensure they promote their agendas while they build their identities as experts. We suggest a framework for discussing the changes of the categories of authorship, creativity, expertise, and reputation that are being re–negotiated in this multi–tier reputation economy.
Paying Attention To Pragmatic Needs
John Hagel on paying attention points to discussion in the blogosphere, precipitated by comments by Esther Dyson in a debate with Vint Cerf in the WSJ Online. Attention scarcity is continuing to grow and will be of concern to all marketers. As Michael argues, the foundation of the attention economy is the exchange that results from giving and receiving attention.
John points to comments from Andrew Keen who amplified on Esther’s comments:
Dyson says that the Internet in 2016 will come to reflect our hunger for attention. It will be electronic proof of our existence. To misquote Descartes, “I can be googled, therefore I am.” The future of media, therefore, for Dyson, is partly a Darwinian struggle to rank higher than others, and partly an existential struggle to prove one’s own identity. This vision is not dissimilar to my own theory of digital narcissism.
And, Scott Karp suggests that this holds the key to a transformation of media economics, radically undermining traditional revenue sources for the creation of content, especially advertising.
For marketers to succeed, we now need to be clear on not just what motivates a buyer to buy – the compelling need – but also what is behind the desire to receive attention. I don’t want to just receive attention because I have primal human needs – what Nick gets at. There are times when I need attention because I have a compelling reason to buy.
How do marketers identify that point of pragmatic need? Monitoring blogs and conversations is one way. But it is a reaction. The simple answer is by building relationships online. By enabling conversations.
Let me illustrate this point. I have a very pragmatic need. Four new tires. The Continental tires on my Audi – even with diligence, have a habit of exploding on road trips. I want the three good ones left off my car. The Audi dealership doesn’t want to have a conversation about this. It’s Continental, or, Michelin. I don’t particularly trust them – a cornerstone of any conversation.
So where can I have a conversation online – how can I post to a site my desire to have a conversation on a topic and attract businesses willing to share a point of view? In the attention economy it strikes me that there will be room for attention brokers to meet pragmatic needs. Just as there are all kinds of tools willing to satisfy our emotional needs with stats.
